Silver and ...Oil?
- Nicholas Rundle
- Jan 13
- 4 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
13 January 2026
An Introduction
Talk to anyone in business and they will tell you that the biggest challenge is finding the right people and since Zinc launched in October 2024 it's been a crazy journey of growth and finding those right people. In 2026, we are about improving what we do, and step one is communication. Over the last few weeks I have spoken to some of you about what you might like to receive from Team Zinc and this is attempt 1, version 1, to deliver on just that.
Today we are excited to launch our weekly blog that will provide ideas and observations and share with you interesting tid bits that come across our desk. Over time we hope this will evolve to be a valuable source of information for you.
While this might be predominantly ASX investment focused we intend to expand or utilise this medium to offer broader thoughts, ideas or opportunities in General Advice format over time. That means not everything in here are recommendations. We may, for example, have an opportunity to share an investment or opportunity with you and I hope this will become the quickest, easiest medium through which to share that with everyone.
I stress, this is a work in progress feedback is always welcomed and you can email me at nmr@zincwealth.com.au or call me for a conversation.
I hope you find this interesting and educational.
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Nick.
If 2025 was the year of Silver could 2026 be the year of Oil?
When Silver began its run one of the reasons given was a simple comparison. An ounce of Gold could be nearly 100 ounces of Silver. Fast forward to today and that gap has narrowed.
So we wonder, could a similar argument be made for Oil? Well, if it can, we have a clear alert flashing as a barrel of oil is now cheaper than an ounce of Silver.
As you can see in the chart attached that is not a very common occurrence, only happening twice in the past 50 years.
And when we talk oil, we talk gas. In the quiet of Christmas the Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water released the Gas Market Review calling for significant change. Key recommendations of the Review include:
introduction of a prospective domestic gas reservation policy, to ensure Australia has sufficient gas for our needs, where it’s needed
market reforms to improve the way gas is bought and sold in Australia by enhancing market functions and trade efficiency
streamlining regulations for reporting and governance for the gas market
In summary all exporters would have to reserve 15-25% of production for our domestic market. It seems ridiculous that the largest producer of LNG has contemplate legislation to ensure we keep enough gas here, but demand from Asia is big, and they will pay more.
All of this while we face a shortfall heading into winter, as shown below.
However, in the face of this shortfall contracted prices have still fallen by 3-5% since 2024 to sit between $13 and $15 according the ACCC report.
The Government hopes the policy will see gas prices drop by $2/Gj. That’s good for consumers, except does policy ever really result in meaningful price drops? What will help reduce the price is the swathe of new projects coming online, especially in the US & Qatar.
All of this would support the markets view of Woodside Energy Group (WDS) whose price has ultimately travelled sideways for the past 12 months. A market in flux with prices high, but coming off, new supply coming but demand still robust.
It keeps the Gas sector a tough play, but an interesting one to watch as this all unfolds.
AI and the changing Real Estate landscape
Over the past six months there has been many column inches directed at the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence on the real estate classified market. It is all doom and gloom or so goes the narrative and we know markets love a good narrative.
Yet in the middle of this narrative REA Group (REA) delivered a good result when it reported in August 2025 with Revenue up 15% and EBITDA up 18%. If nothing else REA has a great track record of delivering growth. A cursory glance over the performance of the last six years shows this.
Source: Refinitiv/Stockpedia
And yet the share price has crumbled as the narrative took over news reports with REA now down 30% from its peak.
But we should note at 41x earnings REA isn’t cheap either. It’s still a ‘growth’ company and it is priced for growth and while REA rarely disappoints if it did, it could hurt some more. We need only look at CSL for an example of what happens to a growth company when growth slows.
With REA to report on February 5 we don’t need to wait much longer for some guidance and over the last few days we have seen some signs of life as buyers step in. At the last two half year (February) reports REA has beaten expectations and with average share price targets of $246, analysts remain sceptical of the AI doom and gloom. Perhaps REA is a worthy of a look leading into February 5.
Research:
Disclaimer: This report is based on information from third parties. We can't ensure the accuracy of all information on which we comment. This report is General Advice only and is not personal advice as it does not take in to account your personal circumstances or situation. You should consider the appropriateness of any information in this report and consult your financial or investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Nick Rundle, the author, is an authorised representative (AR 290136) or Zinc Wealth Pty Ltd (CAR 1252146, ABN 65 616 916 851) which is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Zinc Holdings Pty Ltd (AFSL 564771, ABN 87 679 898 518).
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